Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Midpoint: 27.5%

Status: Active

Last update: 5 hours ago

Market signal

Confidence high (88.0%)

Top 1 share7.0%Top 5 share31.1%

Crowd probability27.6%Smart money probability48.2%Probability gap+20.7%

Top traders

Top traders shaping the market signal

kahe 0x88d17a...b618da 542 positions · 531 markets · $9.1M volume · 3mo tracked	NO	7.0%	$100,000	1.00	74.3%·high
gatorr 0x93abbc...7a9723 798 positions · 797 markets · $40.5M volume · 3mo tracked	YES	6.6%	$89,295	1.00	69.4%·high
SmallFishInWhaleStomach 0xf67f72...4a31cf 169 positions · 152 markets · $15.6M volume · 6mo tracked	NO	6.4%	$108,264	1.00	67.3%·high
ElvenWisp 0x875016...54e96b 66 positions · 65 markets · $26.7M volume · 4mo tracked	NO	5.9%	$252,769	1.00	62.0%·medium
rando12345 0xb40112...19df2a 343 positions · 300 markets · $1.6M volume · 8mo tracked	NO	5.2%	$55,000	1.00	55.4%·medium
wegotit2green 0xb1f8aa...aa2734 594 positions · 441 markets · $415.0K volume · 2mo tracked	NO	5.1%	$17,000	1.00	60.8%·medium
0x79a009b7C0336273Bf3Bc7E1D940aD3e2152B9 0xfacd5e...7d9109 170 positions · 161 markets · $2.5M volume · 1.0y tracked	NO	4.5%	$15,000	1.00	70.7%·high
aikko 0x68d1b1...2c3c4d 153 positions · 137 markets · $297.0K volume · 1.1y tracked	NO	4.4%	$10,000	1.00	69.7%·high
rdba 0xc4d1a8...018ce8 226 positions · 202 markets · $59.3M volume · 10mo tracked	NO	4.4%	$175,168	1.00	46.5%·medium
borntoolate.eth 0x14c326...4cdf68 414 positions · 369 markets · $14.5M volume · 1.1y tracked	NO	4.1%	$240,000	1.00	43.6%·medium
devoteeOfBeshaba 0x49f8d4...968c04 347 positions · 262 markets · $831.5K volume · 4mo tracked	NO	4.0%	$10,253	1.00	62.2%·medium
Apsalar 0xd42f6a...d1047d 61 positions · 56 markets · $511.4K volume · 2y tracked	NO	3.4%	$20,426	0.95	57.3%·medium
Jesetrading 0xce6092...ca6705 713 positions · 659 markets · $159.6K volume · 1.2y tracked	NO	3.1%	$4,746	1.00	70.7%·high
Monopoly_Money 0x7ea7bc...4879ac 154 positions · 151 markets · $1.0M volume · 2y tracked	YES	2.3%	$5,161	1.00	49.2%·medium
stepaninzia 0x6089ca...f15c9a 134 positions · 132 markets · $143.6K volume · 10d tracked	NO	2.0%	$2,412	1.00	65.5%·medium
Ryxon21 0x3dca85...e23c13 334 positions · 290 markets · $1.3M volume · 6mo tracked	YES	1.8%	$2,755	1.00	70.3%·high
TaxIsTheft 0xa7b5bf...66fa78 227 positions · 222 markets · $1.4M volume · 2mo tracked	YES	1.7%	$7,438	1.00	30.1%·low
coleybetsmer 0xff1768...c35745 64 positions · 60 markets · $260.7K volume · 5y tracked	YES	1.6%	$6,190	0.99	33.8%·low
NoClueAtAll 0x557e7b...9c3c74 175 positions · 175 markets · $1.1M volume · 7mo tracked	YES	1.4%	$2,082	1.00	48.7%·medium
protrade 0x4b6a56...5cdb19 553 positions · 481 markets · $519.6K volume · 6mo tracked	NO	1.4%	$1,500	1.00	55.4%·medium
🐥🥚🐣 0xa7d164...5c8749 109 positions · 106 markets · $168.5K volume · 1.3y tracked	NO	1.4%	$3,264	1.00	37.3%·medium
Voron 0x596ab4...dfaa14 255 positions · 249 markets · $114.3K volume · 1.4y tracked	NO	1.2%	$900	1.00	63.0%·medium
lovesea 0x92622f...fdbcb8 50 positions · 46 markets · $184.1K volume · 2y tracked	NO	1.2%	$2,364	1.00	49.2%·medium
QbertRules 0xf65844...f3dcfe 225 positions · 216 markets · $92.6K volume · 8mo tracked	YES	1.1%	$689	1.00	68.2%·high
theHerbalist 0x4d47c4...75d584 51 positions · 47 markets · $33.1K volume · 1.6y tracked	NO	1.1%	$1,498	1.00	42.8%·medium
drborrowedtime 0x1bc191...8989e0 131 positions · 107 markets · $196.1K volume · 8mo tracked	YES	1.0%	$1,378	1.00	52.5%·medium
enrico-vasaio 0xcc792a...031c2a 396 positions · 383 markets · $1.1M volume · 3y tracked	YES	1.0%	$1,377	1.00	68.3%·high
Str3sU 0xd71a00...bd78c9 253 positions · 235 markets · $322.7K volume · 11mo tracked	YES	0.9%	$835	1.00	65.5%·medium
MajoriT 0x8c76c4...3206ac 244 positions · 229 markets · $1.0M volume · 2mo tracked	YES	0.8%	$1,354	1.00	54.0%·medium
interboys 0x849148...05f31f 65 positions · 64 markets · $53.7K volume · 1.2y tracked	YES	0.7%	$533	1.00	60.5%·medium
ChasingPaper 0x8dc7a4...2b116f 336 positions · 327 markets · $168.3K volume · 1.7y tracked	YES	0.7%	$465	1.00	68.3%·high
gb_mg 0x6f5b03...d46759 99 positions · 98 markets · $25.6K volume · 1.6y tracked	NO	0.7%	$362	1.00	61.8%·medium
hetlock 0x70833f...a349f9 129 positions · 128 markets · $87.8K volume · 1.2y tracked	NO	0.7%	$786	1.00	36.9%·medium
Arlette 0x3022eb...9359c1 302 positions · 301 markets · $1.8M volume · 1.5y tracked	YES	0.6%	$689	1.00	66.8%·medium
JuliusNakamoto 0xdf5e4f...534168 210 positions · 189 markets · $1.3M volume · 1.4y tracked	YES	0.5%	$1,102	1.00	61.8%·medium
Magic-Mushroom-Predicting 0x08354f...9f0e07 66 positions · 65 markets · $223.3K volume · 6mo tracked	YES	0.5%	$609	1.00	42.9%·medium
HYPERBE 0x6a9245...39e8fb 70 positions · 69 markets · $94.6K volume · 5mo tracked	NO	0.5%	$1,262	1.00	42.0%·medium
NIRVANA87 0xebc625...fdd45f 121 positions · 115 markets · $32.4M volume · 4mo tracked	NO	0.5%	$307,695	0.54	59.0%·medium
toywy 0x1baa20...e56eb3 151 positions · 146 markets · $82.8K volume · 3mo tracked	NO	0.5%	$460	1.00	69.8%·high
AlwaysRegressing 0xcbefb8...f29ab0 136 positions · 134 markets · $46.1K volume · 1mo tracked	YES	0.5%	$230	1.00	62.4%·medium
terelich 0x626f21...e6cdfa 560 positions · 543 markets · $495.8K volume · 1.5y tracked	YES	0.4%	$405	1.00	53.7%·medium
aLomorah 0xaa05de...08fed7 767 positions · 716 markets · $78.0K volume · 6mo tracked	YES	0.4%	$125	1.00	73.8%·high
119shhci4dt9 0xa028f5...ce0031 413 positions · 411 markets · $44.2K volume · 1mo tracked	YES	0.4%	$168	1.00	69.7%·high
testing123123123 0x4a7442...cfd69e 143 positions · 135 markets · $101.5K volume · 2y tracked	YES	0.4%	$275	1.00	54.6%·medium
0x234e7768AC81b5E78c64299fF035384B424f240b-1770649961553 0x234e77...4f240b 103 positions · 103 markets · $121.5K volume · 2mo tracked	YES	0.4%	$496	1.00	58.0%·medium
JetXBTcn 0xa206f7...8b2cad 150 positions · 136 markets · $3.6M volume · 3mo tracked	YES	0.4%	$10,137	0.60	48.9%·medium
riczuri5w 0x483e37...a14a9c 58 positions · 55 markets · $77.7K volume · 3mo tracked	NO	0.4%	$500	1.00	53.7%·medium
IDidNaatOhHiMark 0xbc0ad6...fc6fc4 120 positions · 115 markets · $117.7K volume · 1.8y tracked	NO	0.4%	$290	1.00	53.0%·medium
fsrfreelo 0xc51af4...a3a0d9 363 positions · 362 markets · $1.1M volume · 2mo tracked	YES	0.4%	$717	1.00	69.1%·high
4bet 0x893b43...27f5ec 113 positions · 112 markets · $1.2M volume · 4mo tracked	YES	0.3%	$1,102	1.00	63.2%·medium
Jiber 0x63409d...f853e3 74 positions · 73 markets · $177.0K volume · 5mo tracked	NO	0.3%	$1,528	0.96	30.6%·low
BouncyBob 0x0eefd0...3176bb 59 positions · 56 markets · $266.5K volume · 6mo tracked	NO	0.3%	$600	1.00	56.4%·medium
tradervader 0xd7e641...ff4f99 140 positions · 136 markets · $242.6K volume · 1.5y tracked	YES	0.3%	$394	1.00	59.0%·medium
peng47bsc1 0x2aa01c...f9e82f 94 positions · 93 markets · $29.1K volume · 6mo tracked	YES	0.3%	$149	1.00	66.7%·medium
bqblooombq 0x10713f...62e39e 109 positions · 104 markets · $71.1K volume · 1mo tracked	NO	0.3%	$240	1.00	57.7%·medium
dundundun 0x9a43ef...c92fce 94 positions · 93 markets · $49.6K volume · 8mo tracked	YES	0.2%	$138	1.00	61.6%·medium
ygffcf09 0x21c824...a28386 266 positions · 262 markets · $65.4K volume · 2mo tracked	YES	0.2%	$136	1.00	51.0%·medium
pedestrian 0x046a98...470701 72 positions · 71 markets · $32.3K volume · 1.5y tracked	YES	0.2%	$157	1.00	51.0%·medium
Entropy8 0x21405b...c35790 170 positions · 167 markets · $181.3K volume · 7mo tracked	YES	0.2%	$169	1.00	68.7%·high
Ultimatetrader69 0x5e29b3...2e9c17 59 positions · 47 markets · $48.3K volume · 27d tracked	YES	0.2%	$193	1.00	55.4%·medium
Charlene680 0xc2feae...84d001 73 positions · 65 markets · $12.2K volume · 9mo tracked	YES	0.1%	$110	1.00	43.9%·medium
Pondermint 0x8633c1...74a08d 179 positions · 171 markets · $950.6K volume · 1.8y tracked	YES	0.1%	$113	1.00	58.3%·medium
0xd1001f...6b853d 222 positions · 207 markets · $2.5M volume · 9d tracked	YES	0.1%	$515	1.00	67.4%·high
9c56soda 0xdd0a7a...82d64b 77 positions · 76 markets · $64.0K volume · 1.8y tracked	NO	0.1%	$109	1.00	25.6%·low
Pjchougule - 1326 0x2998fb...aeb425 329 positions · 324 markets · $25.2K volume · 5y tracked	NO	0.1%	$145	0.82	31.0%·low
fdg 0xbd6d64...93ed0b 593 positions · 567 markets · $447.0K volume · 6mo tracked	YES	0.1%	$110	1.00	47.2%·medium
aSDAFD21 0x52dd2e...b5d79f 96 positions · 93 markets · $85.3K volume · 3mo tracked	YES	0.1%	$112	1.00	57.9%·medium
crudeoilenthusiast 0x3964fc...1566b2 68 positions · 59 markets · $33.1K volume · 28d tracked	YES	0.1%	$100	1.00	40.2%·medium
ding09 0x7c7921...171593 64 positions · 63 markets · $33.4K volume · 7mo tracked	YES	0.1%	$102	1.00	40.6%·medium
weak-hands-small-brain 0xc0e360...869d21 77 positions · 72 markets · $49.9K volume · 1.7y tracked	NO	0.1%	$118	1.00	59.1%·medium
jak00b 0xc405bd...534aff 420 positions · 366 markets · $784.9K volume · 1.7y tracked	YES	0.1%	$113	1.00	44.7%·medium
Afchamza7 0x05cb19...e1f0af 64 positions · 53 markets · $18.0K volume · 1.1y tracked	NO	0.1%	$134	0.87	36.2%·medium
rosemaryowen1642 0x08429e...2cbc38 56 positions · 45 markets · $11.7K volume · 8mo tracked	YES	0.0%	$109	0.78	44.7%·medium
sebastian888marcus 0xdb2a8c...0a1530 61 positions · 55 markets · $42.6K volume · 2mo tracked	YES	0.0%	$126	0.81	27.7%·low
Sherman414 0x0f52f7...f180d6 80 positions · 64 markets · $12.5K volume · 7mo tracked	NO	0.0%	$117	0.68	35.1%·medium
Cierra31 0x078d78...d3c34c 58 positions · 49 markets · $13.8K volume · 12mo tracked	NO	0.0%	$153	0.63	41.3%·medium
kiera86elton 0x0a4fc4...c88663 66 positions · 56 markets · $17.0K volume · 8mo tracked	YES	0.0%	$118	0.53	39.0%·medium