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Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Midpoint: 17.0%

Status: Active

Last update: 1 day ago

Market signal

Confidence high (78.7%)
Top 1 share12.7%Top 5 share49.1%
Crowd probability17.1%Smart money probability50.5%Probability gap+33.4%

Top traders

Top traders shaping the market signal
gotoath
0x55499b...c9ad60
223 positions · 164 markets · $466.5K volume · 6mo tracked
NO
12.7%$40,0001.00
51.4%·medium
Pompeius
0x6640bd...1a2202
293 positions · 277 markets · $3.2M volume · 12mo tracked
NO
12.2%$15,0001.00
59.8%·medium
x26
0x5b9115...222709
658 positions · 596 markets · $3.0M volume · 1.5y tracked
NO
11.3%$10,0001.00
67.9%·high
pmwinner
0x72f137...11595e
232 positions · 160 markets · $414.7K volume · 6mo tracked
NO
8.7%$28,9691.00
35.5%·medium
JetXBTcn
0xa206f7...8b2cad
150 positions · 136 markets · $3.6M volume · 2mo tracked
NO
4.3%$28,7330.77
49.3%·medium
thechainsmokers
0xdd8184...2d9640
56 positions · 54 markets · $2.5M volume · 5mo tracked
YES
4.1%$11,7951.00
41.1%·medium
4bet
0x893b43...27f5ec
113 positions · 112 markets · $1.2M volume · 4mo tracked
YES
3.3%$4,0191.00
63.4%·medium
Sviestmaize
0xe51ead...4c1a85
68 positions · 66 markets · $15.9K volume · 1.5y tracked
NO
3.0%$1,0001.00
56.8%·medium
zetbetter
0x65126a...805291
304 positions · 302 markets · $255.8K volume · 1.5y tracked
YES
2.9%$9901.00
63.1%·medium
Bobbmon
0x265767...2b4af5
90 positions · 89 markets · $44.4K volume · 8mo tracked
YES
2.9%$1,3720.99
48.1%·medium
940
0x130f2e...376e99
177 positions · 160 markets · $257.9K volume · 1.5y tracked
YES
2.8%$1,8891.00
38.1%·medium
tryingmyluckhere
0xac9b38...02d4c5
417 positions · 382 markets · $3.2M volume · 6mo tracked
YES
2.2%$2,2841.00
53.0%·medium
StasPanda
0x7e5e42...f47315
243 positions · 233 markets · $1.8M volume · 2y tracked
YES
2.1%$2,0141.00
56.3%·medium
Nobody23041
0x45cc78...d26400
427 positions · 419 markets · $333.1K volume · 4y tracked
YES
2.0%$6371.00
71.4%·high
Jtrader
0x481d26...be48cf
316 positions · 314 markets · $155.9K volume · 1.4y tracked
YES
1.9%$5810.99
57.6%·medium
cocacolas
0x363536...8b17c8
164 positions · 136 markets · $9.1K volume · 1.8y tracked
YES
1.8%$3761.00
57.3%·medium
SaucyPopcorn
0xf58b99...f538b2
139 positions · 136 markets · $82.0K volume · 1.5y tracked
YES
1.8%$4651.00
50.0%·medium
scottilicious
0x000d25...0a758e
365 positions · 358 markets · $14.6M volume · 5y tracked
YES
1.6%$2,3191.00
70.5%·high
peggysage
0xa7cfaf...04ba10
202 positions · 202 markets · $1.3M volume · 7mo tracked
YES
1.5%$4281.00
57.8%·medium
0xdE4aB98558e6Fb54f071B7c39500aBBa7cBCD152-1767459342654
0xde4ab9...bcd152
162 positions · 159 markets · $14.5K volume · 3mo tracked
YES
1.3%$3041.00
45.4%·medium
checkteo
0xd3f0b5...d9c18b
398 positions · 330 markets · $216.4K volume · 21d tracked
NO
1.3%$3341.00
78.0%·high
anjorni
0xdc195c...c00b8a
147 positions · 137 markets · $33.9K volume · 1.7y tracked
YES
1.3%$2391.00
50.5%·medium
0xc978d7...bdaa84
144 positions · 141 markets · $311.8K volume · 3mo tracked
YES
1.2%$5071.00
61.6%·medium
IDidNaatOhHiMark
0xbc0ad6...fc6fc4
120 positions · 115 markets · $117.7K volume · 1.8y tracked
NO
1.1%$3321.00
53.1%·medium
NKIT
0x766130...cf208a
147 positions · 136 markets · $491.0K volume · 4mo tracked
YES
1.1%$8551.00
68.8%·high
slownick
0x34e6da...09cd63
182 positions · 159 markets · $1.3M volume · 1.0y tracked
YES
1.0%$1,7100.92
29.3%·low
pavlocrpt
0xb8076e...7f99cb
468 positions · 429 markets · $2.6M volume · 1.9y tracked
NO
1.0%$2,5000.76
66.3%·medium
ilovemeth
0x5cb35c...895874
112 positions · 104 markets · $16.1K volume · 1.4y tracked
YES
1.0%$1711.00
56.1%·medium
gerogrson
0x43b34e...4e417c
88 positions · 83 markets · $14.2K volume · 2mo tracked
NO
0.8%$4000.92
32.4%·low
JanusApprentice
0x21c05d...664827
78 positions · 77 markets · $28.2K volume · 1.3y tracked
NO
0.7%$2021.00
61.1%·medium
uncleroger
0x0aae5c...eb251c
493 positions · 481 markets · $7.6M volume · 1.5y tracked
YES
0.6%$5131.00
52.7%·medium
bobbymontana
0xcdc0f6...5adcd8
199 positions · 180 markets · $453.7K volume · 3y tracked
YES
0.5%$2431.00
61.2%·medium
Deadheadbucky
0x68d9aa...5600ed
178 positions · 177 markets · $66.3K volume · 1.5y tracked
YES
0.5%$1711.00
45.8%·medium
dooby
0xbdde4a...49c019
263 positions · 256 markets · $1.9M volume · 1.5y tracked
YES
0.5%$3421.00
61.8%·medium
Str3sU
0xd71a00...bd78c9
251 positions · 233 markets · $320.8K volume · 11mo tracked
YES
0.5%$1711.00
65.6%·medium
fatalyty30
0x6e9ce1...efbf99
75 positions · 75 markets · $47.3K volume · 3mo tracked
YES
0.4%$1631.00
53.7%·medium
Valinv
0x1fb20e...1ca893
83 positions · 82 markets · $37.9K volume · 1.0y tracked
YES
0.4%$1241.00
50.9%·medium
George.Smiley
0x2110ba...f45850
187 positions · 172 markets · $906.4K volume · 7mo tracked
YES
0.4%$1711.00
58.7%·medium
Zaratustra
0x781868...f9d185
251 positions · 233 markets · $1.4M volume · 3y tracked
YES
0.4%$2321.00
59.0%·medium
lewisleon2246
0x7b136d...c44ea5
58 positions · 48 markets · $10.2K volume · 9mo tracked
NO
0.3%$1040.94
44.7%·medium
michaelaoakes3731
0xa7c9bc...327fd9
67 positions · 55 markets · $11.5K volume · 9mo tracked
NO
0.3%$1070.96
39.5%·medium
mayio4
0x78bf9e...d37300
328 positions · 327 markets · $313.0K volume · 1.3y tracked
NO
0.2%$2890.96
37.7%·medium
QRT-Alpha
0x9c6061...9e9c5e
212 positions · 192 markets · $716.7K volume · 8mo tracked
NO
0.1%$1,6000.42
32.5%·low
0x0bD3E4febC639a02810B591FE8F78aE4C400Af78-1747753826463
0x0bd3e4...00af78
60 positions · 50 markets · $18.1K volume · 8mo tracked
NO
0.0%$1690.58
37.8%·medium
Ines594
0x65cff1...2d127d
70 positions · 58 markets · $20.0K volume · 9mo tracked
NO
0.0%$1790.53
41.7%·medium
odyssvy
0x005a49...c3d092
55 positions · 46 markets · $14.1K volume · 1.1y tracked
NO
0.0%$1500.44
43.9%·medium