US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?

Midpoint: 74.5%

Status: Active

Last update: 2 days ago

Market signal

Confidence high (68.8%)

Top 1 share18.3%Top 5 share52.7%

Crowd probability72.5%Smart money probability63.1%Probability gap-9.4%

Top traders

Top traders shaping the market signal

0xd44e97...5f67e2 281 positions · 263 markets · $1.8M volume · 1.5y tracked	NO	18.3%	$8,913	0.91	76.6%·high
GCNO1 0x501122...0e220e 461 positions · 377 markets · $1.5M volume · 5mo tracked	YES	10.0%	$5,453	0.81	59.7%·medium
0x68c24b...fd1711 1201 positions · 1075 markets · $14.9M volume · 1.7y tracked	YES	9.6%	$2,240	0.91	79.8%·high
0x25257a...4eb919 844 positions · 658 markets · $3.2M volume · 3y tracked	NO	8.6%	$2,117	0.76	87.8%·high
Valen9 0x162f6f...54798d 493 positions · 454 markets · $5.6M volume · 3mo tracked	YES	6.2%	$8,827	0.59	39.8%·medium
0xbaa2bc...b92c73 540 positions · 393 markets · $19.8M volume · 1.6y tracked	YES	4.9%	$9,117	0.36	51.1%·medium
Erasmus. 0xc6587b...33b784 137 positions · 124 markets · $16.1M volume · 1.7y tracked	YES	4.6%	$3,670	0.47	57.0%·medium
0xdf17f4...8697d1 745 positions · 605 markets · $28.4M volume · 1.3y tracked	YES	4.0%	$1,239	0.52	78.8%·high
0xb89f54...de1c44 800 positions · 605 markets · $1.7M volume · 3mo tracked	YES	4.0%	$1,577	0.86	41.7%·medium
0xd426ad...42334a 535 positions · 508 markets · $5.1M volume · 1.5y tracked	NO	3.3%	$2,103	0.57	44.9%·medium
0x5F45b60C29d6e4D55c0bFd8dDD39ad45C5e0a77A-1761473032186 0x5f45b6...e0a77a 210 positions · 194 markets · $1.9M volume · 6mo tracked	YES	3.0%	$1,095	0.62	53.0%·medium
0x0a5328...6d7a6f 357 positions · 320 markets · $385.2K volume · 1.4y tracked	NO	2.6%	$294	0.69	77.5%·high
Zhaowei 0x1f1309...3d3a2d 269 positions · 248 markets · $212.1K volume · 1.4y tracked	NO	2.4%	$324	0.63	75.8%·high
0xe73874...9edf65 1701 positions · 1505 markets · $7.5M volume · 6mo tracked	YES	2.1%	$1,460	0.53	37.6%·medium
0x0dccfa...8bd87c 95 positions · 82 markets · $341.1K volume · 4mo tracked	YES	2.1%	$1,134	0.57	39.4%·medium
Moond 0x9dfe2f...40b3dd 419 positions · 368 markets · $1.6M volume · 1.7y tracked	YES	1.8%	$112	0.84	73.8%·high
0xa34429...2f8141 480 positions · 453 markets · $165.4K volume · 1.5y tracked	YES	1.6%	$131	0.62	79.5%·high
0x5e73af...576697 886 positions · 817 markets · $783.3K volume · 1.5y tracked	YES	1.6%	$876	0.42	44.8%·medium
JoeBlack01 0x9ca119...cc13b5 578 positions · 505 markets · $3.1M volume · 1.3y tracked	NO	1.4%	$270	0.37	80.6%·high
0x695c1d...9310a1 806 positions · 717 markets · $240.0K volume · 3mo tracked	YES	1.4%	$129	0.92	46.2%·medium
0xcf37bb...d7993f 4885 positions · 3544 markets · $3.3M volume · 10mo tracked	YES	1.3%	$115	0.67	66.1%·medium
Fuentes31 0x6f40bd...55eb64 376 positions · 357 markets · $1.1M volume · 1.5y tracked	YES	1.3%	$639	0.36	51.6%·medium
0x6abe7704bd2c9812E1f74A6B01a61AC7368ED6a5-1744064218199 0x6abe77...8ed6a5 497 positions · 424 markets · $380.8K volume · 11mo tracked	YES	1.2%	$146	0.51	69.4%·high
0x34379b...07f8f3 375 positions · 328 markets · $264.8K volume · 4mo tracked	YES	1.1%	$292	0.50	46.4%·medium
Mr-Krabs 0x8597ca...49daee 410 positions · 390 markets · $2.6M volume · 1.2y tracked	YES	1.0%	$159	0.39	73.6%·high
0x92e530...1defee 473 positions · 414 markets · $1.2M volume · 3mo tracked	YES	0.8%	$162	0.45	49.1%·medium